"十三五"国家自然科学基金对能源环境管理领域的资助状况和趋势

能源环境管理是各界关注的热点话题,也是科学研究的重要方向.以国家自然科学基金资助能源环境管理领域的科研项目为基础数据信息,本文重点分析了"十三五"期间国家自然科学基金在该领域资助项目的总体特征、研究主题和热点变化,并结合新时代科学基金资助导向提出了可能的发展趋势.主要结论包括:①能源环境管理领域面上、青年、地区等自由探索类项目的立项绝对数和学科占比均呈上升趋势,并更多向青年学者倾斜,资助强度保持稳定;②碳、能源和环境是自由探索项目中出现频率最高的热词,与之相关的研究主题随着政策等调整具有动态变化特征;③能源环境管理领域重点、重大等引导类项目和优青、杰青、创新研究群体等人才类项目不断实现突破,增速明显,学科占比优势突出;④问题导向与本土情景、理论体系和一般规律、学科交叉融合,以及市场和微观主体作用是研究选题确立与项目申请时可能需要重点关注的方向.     

Deployment of parabolic trough concentrated solar power plants in North Africa – a case study for Libya

The study addresses the potential of using concentrated solar power plants (CSPs) as a sustainable alternative of clean energy generation in the Mediterranean region and, in particular, in its North Africa shore. This location presents attractive conditions for the installation of CSPs, in particular high solar irradiation, good manpower concentration, and proximity and availability of water resources for condenser cooling. Energetic, exergetic, and economic analyses were conducted taking into consideration a particular type of CSPs - the parabolic trough concentrated solar power plant, which incorporates the most proven technology and it is already used in Southern Europe (Spain). In addition, the study considered the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The combination of higher values for performance and potentially lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for the North Africa Mediterranean Rim than the South of Spain region can yield a very favorable return for the invested capital. Tripoli compared to Almeria presented superior performance and potentially lower LCE values ($0.18/kWh versus $0.22/kWh). This is significant, even when it is taken into consideration the fact that the plant in Tripoli, despite a relatively modest capacity factor of 34%, has a large gross power output of 173,886 MWhe. In addition, the implementation at the Tripoli location of a plant similar to the Anadsol plant has a slight advantage (2–3%) in terms of overall efficiency.     

300MW锅炉低NOx燃烧系统改造效果分析

针对日益严重的环境污染、锅炉热效率低等问题，阐述了燃煤锅炉炉内空间分级燃烧技术、煤粉浓淡高效分离技术改造项目和特点，提出了对燃烧器系统、一次风管道、二次风系统和空预器系统等系统进行具体的低氮改造措施。分析了300 MW燃煤锅炉低氮改造后的热经济性和安全性。经试验验证，1号锅炉低氮改造后，锅炉NOx 排放量大幅减少，排放浓度降到了280 mg／m3。     

甘肃省风力发电现状及发展对策

介绍了甘肃省的风力资源及风力发电的发展现状，重点阐述了白银地区、玉门地区、酒泉瓜州、金昌地区、敦煌地区和武威地区等几个具有代表性地区的风能资源优势及风电建设情况，指出了甘肃省风力发电在技术和政策等方面目前还存在的主要问题，分析了产生这些问题的原因，提出了促进甘肃省风力发电事业发展的对策。     

Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Under what conditions do critical events trigger large-scale public discussion and mobilisation, and can these lead to policy change? In a comparative study of nuclear energy policy after the Japanese Fukushima disaster in March 2011, a theory-development approach is adopted, mobilising data collected from national news agencies’ newswires, public surveys, legislation and parliamentary databases, and newspaper editorials in 12 established democracies between March 2011 and March 2013. The analysis suggests two main hypotheses that can guide future research: critical events are more likely to trigger policy change when intense (contentious) mobilisation from policy challengers aligns with the views of the general public, and is backed by major political allies; and critical events are more likely to trigger intense (contentious) mobilisation when policy challengers articulate their opposition around pre-existing policy debates on the issue and resort to pre-existing organisational and mobilisation resources.     

水-粮食贸易:虚拟水研究进展

虚拟水思想强调的是水资源贡献，量化计算是其深入研究的基本，而是否选择虚拟水作为战略政策，应该考虑由不同国家的资源贡献和生产技术决定的比较利益。社会调适能力要求社会针对资源的第一性缺乏做相应调适并谋求解决手段，以提高资源管理能力。为此，需要结合我国的水和粮食安全问题，提出用虚拟水贸易解决我国水资源和粮食问题，提高我国对水资源缺乏的调适能力。     

西藏农村能源消费及环境影响研究

西藏农村人口现有220多万，占全区总人口80％以上，农村经济落后，城乡差距很大。西藏农村能源资源主要有水力、地热、太阳能、风力、林木和畜粪等，煤炭、石油、天然气等高热值的优质能源很少。在这种经济发展水平及能源资源基础条件下，农村能源消费中高热值的现代能源比重很低，主要以生物质能如薪柴、牛粪、草皮等为主。这种低水平的能源消费结构已经对西藏脆弱的生态环境造成了巨大的破坏，西藏未来的能源发展战略迫切需要改变农村目前的消费结构，应发展太阳能、风能、农村小水电及输入高热值的化石能源替代目前生物质能的消费，减少因能源消费对西藏生态环境的破坏。     

区域水战略方案选优的动态组合评价模型研究

水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点，提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型（CMM—DCEM），并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明：CMM—DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合，使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数，克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足，评价过程更加科学合理。     

中国经济的“阿基米德支点”

资源是经济发展的“阿基米德支点”：世界十大经济国每年能源的生产占全球的６２．１％，消费为７１．０％。重要矿产资源的生产多排在世界前１０名生产国之，外面是消费则多排在１０名之内，且对这些矿产资源的消费量多在９５％以上。